Costco Wholesale is set to report fourth-quarter earnings after markets close on Thursday, with analysts anticipating short-term volatility but maintaining confidence in the retailer’s long-term performance.
The company has faced investor concerns in recent months over slowing sales momentum. Year-over-year growth in the third quarter was weaker than in the second, and monthly sales reports suggested a cooling trend. Those worries weighed on the stock, which climbed from March to June before giving back some gains.
Oppenheimer analysts expect more fluctuations ahead, citing difficult comparisons in Costco’s non-foods category and near-term earnings pressure. “We would continue to take advantage of a likely volatile trade amidst very difficult year-over-year compares,” the firm said in a recent note.
Citi analysts pointed to factors such as expanded warehouse hours for executive members and last fall’s pre-strike stockpiling that could distort annual comparisons.
Still, Costco’s growth remains solid. Fourth-quarter sales rose 8% year-over-year to $84.4 billion, with comparable store sales up 5.7%. Profit is projected to reach $2.6 billion, compared with $2.4 billion in the same period last year, according to Visible Alpha consensus estimates.
Shares of Costco have gained 2.6% in 2025 and are up about 170% over the past five years. The stock, which closed Tuesday near $944, has a Wall Street consensus price target of $1,080.
